GAMBLING STREAKS AND POKER FACES

So-called “hot streaks” are nothing more than statistical accidents, somewhat similar to hitting streaks by professional baseball players or lucky streaks by money fund managers and stockbrokers. The myth is the longer you wait for a gambling win, or any random event, the more likely it will happen. Not so! This belief is this law of “creeping chance” and helps confuse the probability of a “run” or “streak of luck” with the probability of a single win or a few wins in that run. In other words, just because you win a couple of times does not mean you are at the beginning of a winning streak. Winning is random.

There is no way to predict what will happen next when gambling without cheating the system in some way. Short runs of luck happen more than long runs of luck so be advised to win and move on quickly and quit while you are ahead. The longer you play the more likely you will eventually lose.

When it comes to playing poker many of your more experienced opponents may consciously or unconsciously try and trick you by acting weak when their poker hand is strong and act strong when their poker hand is actually weak. Furthermore, beware of players who bet in a sad voice or shrug their shoulders or act like they hold a “so-so” hand. These players may likely be holding a strong hand.

Also, players holding strong hands often “act” as if they are not interested in the hand being played at the moment but the tip off to their strong hand is they may bet anyway. Players that will not make direct eye contact with you or if they tend to look away from you during betting may be holding a good hand trying to do anything not to give away the power or strength of their good hand.

Remember that criticizing other players’ mistakes may just make them play harder and better.